Hampstead house prices will fall 10 per cent by Christmas and other dire predictions. Did we get it right?
PUBLISHED: 10:53 31 December 2016
As far back as April we were annoying local estate agents with our suggestions that the Hampstead property market had become seriously overheated and was due a cooling period.
What with buy-to-let tax changes, increased stamp duty and, by June, Brexit on the cards evidence and experts were suggesting that Hampstead property was going to see some price correction. Since we’re on the side of the experts we took their word for it. But were we right to?
We said: Brexit will cause a significant drop in Hampstead house prices, probably 10 per cent by Christmas
What happened? There are several ways we could judge this one and it’s tricky to pinpoint, since different price points have been affected differently by the stamp duty changes we’ve seen over the past couple of years – multi million pound Hampstead, Regent’s Park and Primrose Hill houses have been hit harder than flats in Kentish Town, for example.
The issue is complicated further by the fact that we don’t yet have sold price data for December 2016.
The most recent Land Registry house price data for Camden shows October sales prices starting to rise slightly from a post-Brexit July slump. The average sold price in October 2016 was £821,894, only 3.8 per cent lower than April’s average sold price of £854,895.
However, Camden house prices were 0.8 per cent lower than in October 2015, while in April they had risen 14 per cent compared to the previous April, which suggests a longer term softening.
If we judge asking prices, on the other hand, Rightmove figures tell a different story. December sellers dropped their prices to £994,411, 13.5 per cent lower than April’s figure.
And this is more than just ‘normal’ seasonal fluctuation: last December Camden asking prices went up 18 per cent in the same period.
Were we right? Sort of, and there’s still everything to play for.
We said: Petr Cech once lived in Hampstead Garden Suburb
The Arsenal goalkeeper is known for his height (6’5”), his goal saving prowess, and the fact that he used to play for Chelsea, but is he known for having rented a £4,500/week house seven-bedroom house in Winnington Close, N2?
Were we right? Sadly, no. Cech, and scores of angry Gooners, put us right on Twitter and we quickly set the record straight. Woops. Sorry Petr.