Website predicts Labour’s Catherine West will oust Lib Dem MP Lynne Featherstone in general election

A well-respected political science website is predicting a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the Labour Party locally at next year’s general election.

Electoral Calculus, a statistical website run by financial analyst Martin Baxter, is predicting that Labour candidate and Islington Council leader, Cllr Catherine West, will oust Liberal Democrat MP Lynne Featherstone in Hornsey and Wood Green – comfortably overturning the defeat suffered at the hands of the Lib Dems in 2010.

The site predicts that Labour has an 80.6 per cent chance of winning in Hornsey and Wood Green, and estimates the party will poll 44.9 per cent of votes, compared with 29.7 per cent of votes for the Lib Dems.

The figures are in stark contrast to the share in 2010 when Labour secured 34 per cent and the Lib Dems 46.5 per cent.

Electoral Calculus is also forecasting Labour success in Hampstead and Kilburn at next year’s election.


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In 2010, Labour MP Glenda Jackson claimed the seat from Tory contender Chris Philp by just 42 votes.

The site predicts that next year Labour candidate, Camden councillor Tulip Siddiq, will win with 44.2 per cent of votes, beating Conservative candidate Cllr Simon Marcus, who it is predicted will poll 26.8 per cent.

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