It is almost two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, and the war shows no sign of ending.
But there is absolutely no question of what the West and Britain needs to do, and that is to beef up its support of Ukraine, says Bill Browder.
The staunch Putin critic, who lives near Regent's Park, says our interest in supporting Ukraine and resisting the Russian leader is clear-cut, stark and terrifying.
“Putin is going all guns in Ukraine, and if Putin wins in Ukraine we’re going to have a much bigger conflict on our hands," he said.
"If it’s not them fighting the Russians it will be us fighting the Russians."
The American-born British financier has a record of winning the campaigns which he starts. His crusade for Governments to freeze the assets of oligarchs close to Putin followed the death in a Russian prison of his lawyer and adviser Sergei Magnitsky in 2009.
No less than 35 countries have passed a law enabling the country to blacklist individuals accused of human rights offences and freeze their assets. It is a remarkable one-man contribution to destabilise corrupt regimes, by this North London resident.
So what can we do to help Ukraine? “Ukraine is running out of young men, out of money and out of ammunition. They need money. We can give them money and we can give them the ammunition. What we can’t give them is the young men.”
If Putin is the ever-present danger for Ukraine, the country’s future danger is the possible election of Donald Trump as the next US president.
“He has said he will cut off the money to Ukraine. If that happens is Europe ready to dig deep for Ukraine?" Asks Browder.
One route to boosting Ukraine’s finances is to seize Russian state foreign reserves which are in Western banks and which could be used to finance the defence of Ukraine and the Ukrainian economy which is presently totally dependent on US and European support.
Once again, the options for Europe are stark and ominous. “We have two choices, capitulation or seizing Russian assets when Trump comes into office,” says Browder.
“If we don’t confiscate it now, they will win the war because money is running out,” he said.
Browder says that the UK has taken a leading role in the international campaign to get €300m of Russian foreign exchange seized and handed over to Ukraine. The US and Japan are also on board with Browder, but the EU? He is not so sure.
“The EU is dragging its feet, it is ok to confiscate the interest according to some countries, but not the principle. Why not confiscate it all? The EU has a lot of different voices and different interests, including the Hungarians who have blocked foreign aid, for Putin.”
It is not as if the West would be acting out of turn. “Russia is already ex-appropriating Western assets like Carlsburg. The Russians are doing this whether we do it or not.”
Legal issues on confiscation remain and the West has a lot to do to get its law sorted. But if it is not careful, the window may pass, Donald Trump gets elected and Ukraine is lost.
How long will the Ukraine war last? Browder reminds me that the Vietnam War lasted twenty years, so this one could also endure for years. What are the variables that will determine it. One is the state of Russia and Russian morale.
“The thing we don’t know is how weak Russia is. Wives and relatives are demonstrating about the conditions of the soldiers. The situation might be spinning in a bad way for Russia and we just do not know if it will explode. Everyone is scared of saying anything, as if you say anything in Russia you go to jail. It’s hard to make any predictions about anything,” said Browder.
In a world where predictions are veering towards the darker side, this is probably the least this champion of justice can offer for those looking for a better world order.
See Nick Kochan’s work at Kochan.co.uk
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